How to calculate odds on sports betting?

2024 Author: Leah Sherlock | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 05:25

Any bookmaker offers many types of bets on various sporting events. The player is offered to choose a bet on the outcome of matches, the total of goals scored, the performance of individual players and many other events. The probability of each such outcome is expressed in odds.

What is odds in sports betting

The coefficient is a numerical expression of the probability of any outcome of a sporting event in the bookmaker's line. This probability is estimated as a percentage and can take a value from 0 to 100. The coefficient is formed by dividing 100 by the probability of the event. It is initially estimated by bookmaker analysts based on the analysis of the upcoming sporting event.

How odds are calculated at bookmakers

How to calculate the odds on bets in a bookmaker's office can be seen in the simplest example - tossing a coin. This event has only two outcomes, while heads and tails fall out with the same probability of 50%. To calculate the coefficients, you need to divide 100 by 50. The odds for this event are 2.

But in a real bookmaker's office there cannot be such a coefficient, since its main task is to make a profit. To do this, a margin is included in the coefficient, which can range from 2 to 10%. Let's say the margin is 6%. It is divided in equal shares for all outcomes, that is, in the example with a coin, it will be 3%. Thus, adding the margin to the probability of the outcome, we get 53% and the coefficient 100/53=1.89.

The final value of the coefficients, which is offered to players, is formed under the influence of the bet amounts for each outcome. The bookmaker adjusts the odds so that, in any case, to make a profit. In the coin example, we can imagine that most of the players are betting on heads. The bookmaker in this case will lower the coefficient of this outcome and, accordingly, increase it for the opposite one.

This algorithm is performed for each event in the line using a special program. It generates odds based on three factors: probability of an outcome, margin and the current distribution of players' bets.

How is the probability calculated?

Bookmakers have a large staff of analysts whose task is to make predictions for sports events. Each uses a large amount of data, comparing which determines the likelihood of a particular outcome. Forecasts, as a rule, are made on the basis of statistics of teams or athletes and the opinions of authoritative experts.

How to convert probability to odds?

For example, as a result of the work of experts and analysts, some probabilities of outcomes of a football match were derived.

R1	X	P2
55 %	30%	15 %

To understand how to correctly calculate the bookmaker's odds, you need to divide 100% by probabilities.

R1	X	P2
1, 82	3, 33	6, 67

As mentioned earlier, such odds cannot be found in the real line of the bookmaker. The actual numbers might look something like this:

R1	X	P2
1, 75	3, 1	5, 88

If we translate these values back into probabilities, we get

R1	X	P2
57 %	32 %	17 %

The example clearly shows that now the sum of the probabilities is not equal to 100%, but is 106%. This extra 6% is the bookmaker's margin.

Beginners can use special calculators. How to calculate the odds on sports betting with their help is easy to figure out. As a rule, you need to enter the odds and the margin, and the system will calculate the probability of the outcome.

Understanding the basic principles of building a betting lineallows players to make a profit. To do this, you need to independently assess the probability of each outcome of a sporting event using statistics and analytics. Having calculated the coefficients, it is necessary to compare them with the proposed ones.

The main goal of a bettor is to find such events where the odds are too high. In fact, the player wins when the bookmaker's analysts make mistakes and incorrectly estimate the probability.

How to calculate the possible winnings on a bet?

Having figured out how to calculate the odds on bets and how to estimate the probability of an outcome, a bettor needs to know the amount of a possible win. To do this, use a simple formula:

transaction amount × coefficient.

If you place a bet in the amount of 100 rubles with a coefficient of 2, 0, in case of a positive outcome, the winnings will be 200 rubles. This amount includes both the size of the bet and the net profit, which will amount to 100 rubles.

What types of odds are there

In sports betting, odds are indicated by numbers, which can be in one of three formats.

Decimal odds

In this form, the lines of Russian and European bookmakers are displayed. The only exceptions are offices from the UK. Odds are written in normal decimal digits, such as 1, 25, 5, 5, and so on.

Fractional odds

This version of the record is also called British. As the name implies, this kind of coefficients is usually used inGreat Britain. The numbers here are written as a fraction and look like 1/2, 5/2, and so on.

The numerator of the fraction means the amount of winnings, and the denominator is the required amount of the bet. For example, if the odds are 5/2, it means that you need to bet $2 to make a profit of $5.

To convert such a coefficient to decimal, you need to divide the first number by the second and add 1. For example, the coefficient 3/2 is (3/2) + 1 corresponds to the decimal coefficient 2, 5.

American odds

In this variant, the coefficient is expressed as an integer and can be positive or negative. A value with a minus means that the player's profit will be less than the bet amount. The number indicates the number of conventional units that you need to bet in order to get a net profit of 100 units.

If the coefficient is 200, this means that the player needs to bet 200 conventional units to get 100.

The plus sign indicates that the expected profit is higher than the bet amount. The figure in this case expresses the player's winnings at a bet of 100 conventional units.

These simple examples will help you understand how to calculate the odds in betting on football, hockey, tennis and other sports. With the help of small calculations and analysis of the line of bookmakers, you can get a good profit.